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Three pictures三张图
Three stops. First the 300 workers with the subsidy’s own effect set to zero. Then the 40 students with no Arts–Engineering talks. Then the 24 districts with a curve allowed to bend to every one of them.三站。先是 300 名工人，补贴本身的作用设为零。然后是 40 名学生，没有跨学院的谈话。然后是 24 个区，曲线被允许弯向每一个区。
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Causal · a slope without an effect因果 · 没有效应的斜率
Leave the subsidy’s own effect at zero and turn up how strongly savings push both use and later pay. The line of pay against subsidy use can still rise.把补贴本身的作用留在零，并把积蓄推动领补贴和后来月薪的力度调高。月薪对领补贴的线仍可能上升。
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Networks · cut the bridges网络 · 切断桥
Keep talks inside a faculty at 0.25 and set Arts–Engineering talks to zero. See whether the students fall into two conversations, and what share of talks stays inside a faculty.把学院内部的谈话留在 0.25，把跨学院的谈话设为零。看学生会不会分成两场谈话，以及谈话里有多少留在学院内部。
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Machine Learning · a closer fit机器学习 · 更贴近的拟合
Allow the curve to bend all the way to 12 and compare this year’s miss with next year’s. Draw a new set of districts before you treat one curve as the budget.把允许的弯曲调到 12，比较今年的偏差和明年的偏差。把一条曲线当成预算之前，先再抽一批区。